Passenger Demand Growth Slows Slightly in February 2025
- Written by: iPMI Global
Data for February 2025 global passenger demand with the following highlights:
- Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was up 2.6% compared to February 2024. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), was up 2.0% year-on-year. The February load factor was 81.1% (+0.4 ppt compared to February 2024).
- International demand rose 5.6% compared to February 2024. Capacity was up 4.5% year-on-year, and the load factor was 80.2% (+0.9 ppt compared to February 2024).
- Domestic demand fell 1.9% compared to February 2024. Capacity was down 1.7% year-on-year. The load factor was 82.6% (-0.2 ppt compared to February 2024).
“While traffic growth slowed in February, much of this can be explained by factors including the leap year, and lunar new year falling in January compared to February last year. February traffic hit an all-time high, and the number of scheduled flights is set to continue increasing in March and April. But we need to keep a close eye on developments in North America, which saw falls in both domestic and international traffic,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
“The recent shut-down of Heathrow reminded us once again that the current passenger rights regime in place in Europe and the UK is not fit for purpose. The annual costs of compensation, care and assistance run into the billions. Thankfully, the Polish Presidency of the EU has recognized that this is a drag on European competitiveness and is progressing much-needed and long-anticipated reforms to EU261. While many of the proposed reforms are sensible, the package stops short of a real solution. Even with the reforms, EU261 will still target the airlines with penalties even if the root cause of delays is an infrastructure incident out of their control—like we saw at Heathrow. Over two decades of EU261 have not seen a reduction in delays because infrastructure providers have no incentive to improve their game. Sadly for European travelers, we are likely to see this play out again in this summer’s peak travel season. Genuine reform of EU261 must ensure that all parties responsible for delays have a stake in the consequences,” said Walsh.
Air Passenger Market in Detail
| February 2025 (% year-on-year) | World Share1 | RPK | ASK | PLF(%-PT)2 | PLF(Level)3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total Market
|
100%
|
2.6%
|
2.0%
|
+0.4%
|
81.1%
|
|
Africa
|
2.2%
|
6.8%
|
4.7%
|
+1.5%
|
75.4%
|
|
Asia Pacific
|
33.5%
|
4.2%
|
2.7%
|
+1.3%
|
85.4%
|
|
Europe
|
26.7%
|
4.3%
|
3.9%
|
+0.3%
|
76.7%
|
|
Latin America
|
5.3%
|
4.6%
|
5.6%
|
-0.8%
|
81.6%
|
|
Middle East
|
9.4%
|
3.3%
|
1.3%
|
+1.6%
|
82.0%
|
|
North America
|
22.9%
|
-3.2%
|
-1.9%
|
-1.1%
|
79.0%
|
1) % of industry RPKs in 2024 2) Year-on-year change in load factor 3) Load Factor Level
Regional Breakdown - International Passenger Markets
International RPK growth moderated to 5.6% in February year-on-year, down from 12.3% growth in January. However, this growth meant that all regions except North America established record February levels of demand.
Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 9.5% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 8.3% year-on-year and the load factor was 85.7% (+0.9 ppt compared to February 2024).
European carriers had a 5.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 4.9% year-on-year, and the load factor was 75.5% (+0.5 ppt compared to February 2024).
Middle Eastern carriers saw a 3.1% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 1.3% year-on-year and the load factor was 81.9% (+1.4 ppt compared to February 2024).
North American carriers saw a -1.5% year-on-year fall in demand. Capacity decreased -3.2% year-on-year, and the load factor was 78.9% (+1.3 ppt compared to February 2024).
Latin American airlines saw a 6.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 9.9% year-on-year. The load factor was 81.7% (-2.5 ppt compared to February 2024).
African airlines saw a 6.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 4.0% year-on-year. The load factor rose to 75.3% (+2.0 ppt compared to February 2024).
Domestic Passenger Markets
Domestic RPK fell -1.9% over the previous February. Load factors were almost flat (-0.2 ppt). Traffic decline in China (-3.2%) was likely due to Lunar New Year falling in January this year compared to February 2024. Falling US consumer confidence may well have contributed to the -4.2% decline in domestic US traffic. India continued to see strong demand (+13.2%) with the load factor at 90.3% (+1.4 ppt compared to February 2024).
| fEBRUARY 2025 (% year-on-year) | World Share1 | RPK | ASK | PLF(%-PT)2 | PLF(LEVEL)3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Domestic
|
38.2%
|
-1.9%
|
-1.7%
|
-0.2%
|
82.6%
|
|
Domestic Australia
|
0.8%
|
-3.8%
|
-5.5%
|
+1.3%
|
74.3%
|
|
Domestic Brazil
|
1.1%
|
8.0%
|
4.1%
|
+2.9%
|
80.3%
|
|
Domestic China P.R.
|
11.3%
|
-3.2%
|
-4.5%
|
+1.2%
|
86.2%
|
|
Domestic India
|
1.6%
|
13.2%
|
11.4%
|
+1.5%
|
90.3%
|
|
Domestic Japan
|
1.0%
|
5.8%
|
-1.2%
|
+5.5%
|
83.9%
|
|
Domestic US
|
14.4%
|
-4.2%
|
-1.2%
|
-2.5%
|
78.7%
|
1) % of industry RPKs in 2024 2) year-on-year change in load factor 3) Load Factor Level
Note: the six domestic passenger markets for which broken-down data are available account for approximately 30.2% of global total RPKs and 79.1% of total domestic RPKs.
View the February 2025 Air Passenger Market Analysis (pdf)
